Health care expenditure expected to top GDP growth during 2024 to 2033

The annual growth in national health spending is expected to be faster than average gross domestic product (GDP) growth during 2024 to 2033, according to a study published online June 25 in Health Affairs.

Sean P. Keehan, from the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services in Baltimore, and colleagues projected national health expenditures for 2024 to 2033.

The authors note that national health expenditures are projected to have increased 8.2% and 7.1% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, reflecting continued strong growth in health care services and goods use. Health spending growth is expected to average 5.6% during 2026 to 2027, partly due to a decline in the share of the population with health insurance (relating to expiration of the temporary enhanced Marketplace premium tax credits in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act) and partly due to an anticipated slowdown in utilization growth.

For the full 2024 to 2033 projection period, national health care expenditure growth is expected to outpace that of the GDP each year (averaging 5.8% versus 4.3%), resulting in a health share of GDP that reaches 20.3% by 2033, an increase from 17.6% in 2023.

“Although the projections presented here reflect current law, future legislative and regulatory health policy changes could have a significant impact on the projections of health insurance coverage, health spending trends, and related cost-sharing requirements, and they thus could ultimately affect the health share of GDP by 2033,” the authors write.

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