Current Activity in the Himalayas, Tectonic activity in the Himalaya region continues unabated, as the Indian plate continues to move north at a rate of about 5 cm per year and collides with the Eurasian plate. This collision creates stress, which is periodically released in the form of earthquakes. In particular, the central Himalayan region has not had a major earthquake (magnitude 8 or greater) in the last 700 years, indicating that a major earthquake may occur in the future. Recent studies suggest that the region is one of the most active earthquake zones globally, and the magnitude 6.8 earthquake in Tibet in January 2025 underscores this threat.
Earthquake risk of Delhi in India
India (Delhi) falls in earthquake zone IV, one of the high-risk areas. This means that it is vulnerable to moderate to strong earthquakes, especially from the effects of Himalayan earthquakes. In recent years, Delhi has experienced several minor earthquakes, such as a 4.0 magnitude earthquake in February 2025, which had its epicentre within Delhi. These earthquakes were not deep (only 5–10 km depth), making their impact on the surface more intense.
A major earthquake in the Himalayan region could have a severe impact on Delhi, especially since it is only 250-300 km from the Himalayas. Historical records, such as the 7.5 magnitude earthquake of 1803, show that Delhi could suffer widespread destruction. Recent studies suggest that Delhi’s soil composition (alluvial soil) could amplify earthquake waves, causing further damage. In particular, areas such as the Yamuna floodplains, East Delhi, Delhi University and the airport are more vulnerable. Though Delhi is unlikely to be completely destroyed, there could be massive loss of life and property, especially if buildings are not earthquake-resistant
Detailed survey note: Himalayan earthquake and effect on Delhi
To understand the earthquake risk of the Himalayan region and its possible impact on Delhi, we have conducted a thorough survey of recent studies, news reports and scientific analysis. This note covers all the details that address the user’s question, including the current tectonic activity in the Himalayas, the earthquake risk of Delhi, the possible danger time and the potential destruction.
Tectonic activity in the Himalayas
The Himalayas are formed by a confrontation of Indian and Eurasian plates, where the Indian plate is moving northwards at a rate of about 47 mm every year. This motion causes stress, which mainly accumulate with fault lines such as the main marginal thrust (MBT) and Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HPT). Recent studies suggest that the Central Himalayan region, which is 600 km long, has not seen a larger earthquake than the last 1505, causing this area to become particularly sensitive.
In January 2025, a 6.8 magnitude earthquake in Tibet, killing 126 people, underlines the region’s earthquake risk. Researchers believe that the Himalayas are one of the “minimal monitoring, high -risk active tectonic features”, which lacks GPS network and seismic monitoring
Delhi’s earthquake risk and geographical location
Delhi Earthquake Zone falls in Zone IV, the second highest risky area in India’s earthquake risk map. This zone includes 18% of India’s land, and it is particularly sensitive due to the proximity to the Himalayan region . The geographical location of Delhi, including the expansion of the Delhi-Haridwar Ridge and the Aravalli mountain range, makes it more sensitive to the earthquake. In recent years, Delhi has experienced many small earthquakes, such as a 4.0 magnitude earthquake in February 2025, which was in Dhaula Kua and the depth was only 5 km, causing the effect on the surface to intensify the effect on the surface.
| Zone | Risk level | Area percentage | Exemplary area |
|---|---|---|---|
| II | Low | 11% | Some southern states |
| III | Moderate | 30% | Parts of central India |
| IV | Severe | 18% | Delhi, Haryana, Punjab |
| V | Very Severe | 11% | Himalayan states, North-East |
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Possible danger time and prediction
It is not possible to predict the exact time earthquake, but researchers believe that a large earthquake (more than 8) in the Himalayan region may occur in the near future, perhaps in the next one or two decades. Professor Javed Malik of IIT Kanpur has suggested that this possibility may be in the next one or two years, but it is only estimated . Some studies suggest that tension on the Himalayan fault lines is sufficient, and moderate earthquakes are not releasing enough stress, causing big earthquakes and probability.
Possible impact and destruction on Delhi
The major earthquake in the Himalayan region may have a serious impact on Delhi, especially because it is only 250–300 km from the Himalayas. Historical records, such as an 1803 7.5 magnitude earthquake, shows that there may be widespread destruction in Delhi, including the collapse of buildings and loss of life and property. The 2015 Gorkha earthquake, which was 7.8, showed mild effects in Delhi, but a large earthquake can be more destructive (April 2015 Nepal Earthquake).
Delhi’s soil structure can increase earthquake waves, which can further increase damage. In particular, areas such as Yamuna floodlines, East Delhi, University of Delhi, Delhi and Airport are more sensitive. Recent studies suggest that many new tall buildings are not seismic, and heavy glass structures in Gurugram can be particularly dangerous . However, Delhi is less likely to be completely ruined, but there may be loss of life and property on a large scale.
